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In the aftermath of the London '7/7' attacks in 2005, UK government agencies required the development of a quick-running tool to predict the weapon and injury effects caused by the initiation of a person borne improvised explosive device (PBIED) within crowded metropolitan environments. This prediction tool, termed the HIP (human injury predictor) code, was intended to: — assist the security services to encourage favourable crowd distributions and densities within scenarios of 'sensitivity';— provide guidance to security engineers concerning the most effective location for protection systems;— inform rescue services as to where, in the case of such an event, individuals with particular injuries will be located;— assist in training medical personnel concerning the scope and types of injuries that would be sustained as a consequence of a particular attack;— assist response planners in determining the types of medical specialists (burns, traumatic amputations, lungs, etc.) required and thus identify the appropriate hospitals to receive the various casualty types.This document describes the algorithms used in the development of this tool, together with the pertinent underpinning physical processes. From its rudimentary beginnings as a simple spreadsheet, the HIP code now has a graphical user interface (GUI) that allows three-dimensional visualization of results and intuitive scenario set-up. The code is underpinned by algorithms that predict the pressure and momentum outputs produced by PBIEDs within open and confined environments, as well as the trajectories of shrapnel deliberately placed within the device to increase injurious effects. Further logic has been implemented to transpose these weapon effects into forms of human injury depending on where individuals are located relative to the PBIED. Each crowd member is subdivided into representative body parts, each of which is assigned an abbreviated injury score after a particular calculation cycle. The injury levels of each affected body part are then summated and ...

Quantitative Research Methods for Health Professionals: A Practical Interactive Course is a superb introduction to epidemiology, biostatistics, and research methodology for the whole health care community. Drawing examples from a wide range of health research, this practical handbook covers important contemporary health research methods such as survival analysis, Cox regression, and meta-analysis, the understanding of which go beyond introductory concepts. The book includes self-assessment exercises throughout to help students explore and reflect on their understanding and a clear distinction

Background: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. Methods: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. Results: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (minimum=22,000, maximum=35,000) deaths and 770,000 (minimum=580,000maximum=1 million) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of −0.1 milli °C in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be −0.70 milli °C in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of −0.64 to −0.93 milli °C based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. Discussion: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 ; publishedVersion

BACKGROUND: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. METHODS: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. RESULTS: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text]) deaths and 770,000 ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of [Formula: see text] in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be [Formula: see text] in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. DISCUSSION: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899

Each year up to 2.6 million people die prematurely from household air pollution (HAP) due to cooking with polluting fuels such as wood and charcoal, particularly in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). The World Health Organisation recommends scaling the adoption of clean fuels to improve maternal and child health. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) represents a scalable clean fuel that provides health and environmental benefits when used for household energy in LMICs. In Cameroon, over 70% of people rely on biomass for cooking, and the Government aims to increase LPG use from < 20% to 58% by 2030. Supporting households make this transition requires involvement of multiple stakeholders and an understanding of perspectives from the community's perspective. We used visual participatory methods 'photovoice' to explore households' perceptions of factors influencing the uptake of LPG for cooking in South-West Cameroon. Two groups of participants from rural (n=7) and peri-urban (n=8) areas photographed subjects they identified as preventing and facilitating LPG uptake in their communities. Subsequently, individual interviews (n=15) and group discussions (n=5) explored participants' reflections on the photographs. Thematic analysis was conducted using NVivo 10 software. The main barriers identified included difficulty in affording the initial LPG equipment and ongoing refills, scarcity of LPG retail shops and refills, and safety concerns. Facilitators included (i) increasing awareness of the benefits of LPG (e.g. health), (ii) increasing retail outlet density in rural areas, (iii) addressing safety concerns (e.g. replacing damaged cylinders), and (iv) reducing the price of LPG refills. Participants presented their photos at a public exhibition, which generated discussions with key stakeholders (e.g. government ministries) about how best to assist communities in this transition. Photovoice was found to be an innovative and effective approach for exploring how to advance equitable access to LPG from a community ...